1985—2019年8次中国儿童青少年体质健康监测的爆发力素质研究及长期发展预测

doi:10.11852/zgetbjzz2024-0601

中国儿童保健杂志 ›› 2025, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (5): 565-570.DOI: 10.11852/zgetbjzz2024-0601

1985—2019年8次中国儿童青少年体质健康监测的爆发力素质研究及长期发展预测

张帅¹, 李成跃¹, 李卫民^1,2

1.新疆师范大学体育学院,新疆维吾尔自治区乌鲁木齐 830054;
2.华东师范大学体育与健康学院

收稿日期:2024-06-20 修回日期:2024-10-21 发布日期:2025-04-30 出版日期:2025-05-10
通讯作者: 李卫民,E-mail:liweimingll1@126.com
作者简介:张帅(1998—),男,硕士学位,主要研究方向为儿童青少年体质健康。

Quality of power for monitoring the physical fitnessof Chinese children and adolescents based on 8 studies from 1985 to 2019 and long-term development forecasts

ZHANG Shuai¹, LI Chengyue¹, LI Weimin^1,2

1. Institute of Physical Education,Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi, Xinjiang 830054, China;
2. School of Physical Education and Health Care, East China Normal University

Received:2024-06-20 Revised:2024-10-21 Online:2025-05-10 Published:2025-04-30
Contact: LI Weiming,E-mail:liweimingll1@126.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的调查1985—2019年中国7～18岁儿童青少年爆发力素质的长期趋势,预测2029年爆发力素质发展状况,对未来体质健康政策的制定提供参考。方法选取1985—2019年全国学生体质健康调研中7～18岁中国汉族儿童青少年立定跳远测试结果的均值、标准差和样本量数据,通过t检验、χ²检验、发展增量和增速进行描述性、推断性分析,用时间序列分析法预测2029年爆发力均值。结果 34年间,7～18岁儿童青少年立定跳远成绩总体水平呈下降趋势。7～18岁城市男生的成绩累积下降2.24cm,增长环比为-1.77%,7～18岁城市女生的成绩累积下降0.86cm,环比为-1.12%。7～18岁乡村男生成绩累积下降了10.83cm,环比为-2.39%,下降幅度较大;7～18岁乡村女生的成绩累积下降了10.54cm,环比为-2.84%。预测结果显示2029年时,中国7～18岁城乡男女生的爆发力素质总体水平均提高。结论 1985—2019年中国儿童和青少年的爆发力素质总体水平呈下降趋势,但近年下降速度减缓,预计2029年时将会提高。

关键词: 爆发力素质, 体质监测, 时间序列, 儿童青少年

Abstract: Objective To investigate the long-term trend of explosive power among Chinese children and adolescents aged 7 to 18 years from 1985 to 2019, predict the status of explosive power in 2029, so as to provide reference for the formulation of future physical health policies. Methods The mean, standard deviation, and sample size data of standing long jump test results for Han Chinese children and adolescents aged 7 to 18 years from the national student physical health surveys conducted between 1985 and 2019 were selected. Descriptive and inferential analysis were conducted using t tests, χ² tests, development increments, and growth rates. Time series analysis was used to predict the mean explosive power in 2029. Results Over the 34-year period, the overall standing long jump performance of children and adolescents aged 7 to 18 years showed a declining trend. The cumulative decline for urban boys aged 7 to 18 years was 2.24 cm, with a chain growth rate of -1.77%; and for urban girls, the cumulative decline was 0.86cm, with a chain growth rate of -1.12%. For rural boys aged 7 to 18 years, the cumulative decline was 10.83 cm, with a chain growth rate of -2.39%, indicating a relatively large decline; for rural girls aged 7 to 18 years, the cumulative decline was 10.54 cm, with a chain growth rate of -2.84%. The prediction results showed that by 2029, the overall level of explosive strength among Chinese children and adolescents aged 7 to 18 years, both urban and rural, would increase. Conclusion The overall level of explosive power among Chinese children and adolescents declined from 1985 to 2019 but the rate of decline has slowed in recent years, and it is projected to increase by 2029.

Key words: explosive power, physical fitness monitoring, time series, children and adolescents

中图分类号:

R179

张帅, 李成跃, 李卫民. 1985—2019年8次中国儿童青少年体质健康监测的爆发力素质研究及长期发展预测[J]. 中国儿童保健杂志, 2025, 33(5): 565-570.

ZHANG Shuai, LI Chengyue, LI Weimin. Quality of power for monitoring the physical fitnessof Chinese children and adolescents based on 8 studies from 1985 to 2019 and long-term development forecasts[J]. Chinese Journal of Child Health Care, 2025, 33(5): 565-570.

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1985—2019年8次中国儿童青少年体质健康监测的爆发力素质研究及长期发展预测

Quality of power for monitoring the physical fitnessof Chinese children and adolescents based on 8 studies from 1985 to 2019 and long-term development forecasts

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