Objective To compare the differences in the disease burden of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) among children and adolescents in China, Japan, and South Korea from 1990 to 2021, and to predict the trends from 2022 to 2035, and to explore influencing factors, so as to provide a scientific basis for ASD treatment and health services in China. Methods Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess the trends in prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates of ASD among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2021, calculating the average annual percent change (AAPC).The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to predict disease burden trends from 2022 to 2035. Results From 1990 to 2021, both the prevalence rate(China:AAPC=0.19%,Japan:AAPC=0.24%,South Korea:AAPC=0.16%) and DALYs rate (China:AAPC=0.21%,Japan:AAPC=0.24%,South Korea:AAPC=0.17%) of ASD among children and adolescents in the three countries all showed an upward trend(P<0.001).By 2035, the prevalence of ASD in China is predicted to slightly decrease to 696.35/105, while the DALYs rate is projected to rise to 136.42/105.In contrast, Japan (1 711.40/105,329.14/105) and South Korea (1 618.68/105,315.22/105) are predicted to show continuous upward trends.The prevalence was consistently higher in males than in females across all three countries.In 2021, the highest burden was observed in children under 5 years old; the prevalence and DALYs rates in China were 713.66/105 and 139.36/105, respectively, which were lower than those in Japan (1 692.73/105, 328.99/105) and South Korea (1 599.42/105, 311.38/105). Conclusions From 1990 to 2021, the prevalence and DALYs of ASD in children and adolescents in China, Japan, and South Korea all showed upward trends.Males and younger age groups faced higher risks.In the next 15 years, the prevalence in China is expected to stabilize or slightly decline, whereas the burden in Japan and South Korea will likely continue to rise.This highlights the necessity for tailored intervention strategies aligned with respective national pouputation policies and the configuration of medical resources.
Key words
autism spectrum disorder /
disease burden /
China, Japan, and South Korea /
Joinpoint regression model /
ARIMA model /
children and adolescents
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